Research published by ETH Zurich in *Nature Communications* reveals that the European Union's policy efforts to rebuild local photovoltaic (PV) supply chains may lead to significant cost inefficiencies. However, scientists confirm that after analyzing all scenarios, China will continue to dominate the global PV supply until at least 2030. To meet high demand and net-zero emission targets, global PV manufacturing capacity must expand to at least 1.5 times its 2022 level ahead of schedule to avoid shortages during peak demand periods.

The study simulates the impact of European policies on global trade flows, covering the production chain of polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells, and modules. If Europe achieves module self-sufficiency, it would require investments of 500 to 1,200 billion US dollars; relocating polysilicon and ingot manufacturing is estimated to cost 200 to 520 billion US dollars. Global capacity utilization is projected to be uneven, ranging from 58% to 79%, with some countries falling below 10%, highlighting issues of geographical mismatch rather than insufficient future demand.

The ETH Zurich team emphasizes that trade barriers may merely shift commercial dependencies without addressing root problems, while increasing employment costs by up to 30%. In contrast, subsidizing producers could reduce industry costs by 23.6%, increase employment returns by 27.5%, and achieve similar levels of self-sufficiency. Policy initiatives should focus on local demand and long-term optimization to reduce geographical mismatches and promote balanced development of the global PV ecosystem.
url:https://www.pv-magazine-latam.com/2025/08/06/china-se-mantendra-como-proveedor-dominante-de-energia-fotovoltaica-hasta-2030/